⁠⁠China’s Property Market To Worsen, IMF Warns

Jennifer George
Jennifer George

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In a report published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday, the financial organization highlighted an imminent slowdown in China’s real state market. The IMF has revised its growth forecast for China in 2024 to 4.8%, 0.2% points lower than its July estimate. For 2025, growth is anticipated to be 4.5%. “Conditions for the real estate market could worsen, with further price corrections taking place amid a contraction in sales and investment,” the report stated.

To combat crippling levels of inflation and a dull property market, Xi’s government introduced a slew of corrective measures in September. These include slashing benchmark interest rates and lifting restrictions on home purchases in Guangzhou and Shangai.

In October, China’s Minister of Finance, Lan Fo’an, hinted at the possibility of leveraging China’s minimal debt to inject funds into an underconfident Chinese economy. To supplement these announcements and measures, China’s housing ministry announced an expansion of its “whitelist” of real estate projects while offering quick funds to complete unfinished housing projects.

Some actions taken by Chinese authorities have already been factored into the IMF’s latest projections, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, told CNBC’s Karen Tso on Tuesday. “They are certainly going in the right direction, not enough to move the needle from the 4.8% we’re projecting for this year and 4.5% for next year,” he stated, adding that the recent measures are still under evaluation and are yet to be included in the agency’s forecasts.

The IMF’s recent report warned China of the adverse effects linked to its recent monetary injections. “Government stimulus to counter weakness in domestic demand would place further strain on public finances. Subsidies in certain sectors, if targeted to boost exports, could exacerbate trade tensions with China’s trading partners,” the report stipulated.

Last week, China announced third-quarter GDP growth of 4.6%, marginally above the 4.5% forecasted by economists surveyed by Reuters.