Trump Media & Technology Group’s stock (DJT) concluded a turbulent week with a 10% drop on Friday, capping a five-day, 20% decline just days before the presidential election. The sharp movements followed a volatile series of trading sessions that saw multiple trading halts and significant swings in both directions.
DJT’s recent slide began on Wednesday with a steep 22% decline, erasing more than $4 billion from its market capitalization despite the stock more than doubling from its September lows. Analysts expect volatility to persist in the run-up to the election, with predictions that a Trump loss could send DJT’s shares into free fall.
“It’s a binary bet on the election,” Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, explained on Yahoo Finance’s Catalysts show. Tuttle holds put options on DJT and believes the stock’s trajectory is tightly linked to a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” trading sentiment. He added, “If [Trump] loses, I think it goes to zero.”
Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, echoed this, noting that DJT’s trading behavior has taken on a “meme-stock life of its own.” The stock’s recent volatility has been further fueled by betting markets like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Kalshi, where shifts in favor of a Trump victory had driven share price gains earlier in the week. However, with national polls and battleground states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin showing razor-thin margins, market uncertainty remains high.
DJT shares have also experienced turbulence linked to company fundamentals. In August, the company reported a Q2 net loss of $16.4 million, half of which was attributed to expenses related to its SPAC merger, while revenue declined 30% year-over-year to just under $837,000. Following the expiration of a lockup period in September, shares dipped to their lowest levels since the company’s debut.
Founded by Donald Trump as an alternative social media platform following his bans from Facebook (META) and Twitter (now X) after the January 6 Capitol riots, Truth Social faces uphill competition against established platforms. Trump has since been reinstated on X, where he resumed posting in August after a year-long hiatus.
As DJT navigates its financial challenges, leadership changes have also added to investor uncertainty. In September, the company announced the departure of its COO. Currently, Trump holds a 60% stake in DJT, valued at around $3.7 billion based on the latest market cap of $6.2 billion.
