Top executives across the U.S. are increasingly discussing the upcoming presidential election, with “election” mentions on S&P 500 earnings calls reaching a record high. Between Sept. 15 and Oct. 31, the term was brought up on 100 calls, marking the most significant surge in election-related mentions during this period since 2004, according to FactSet data. This heightened focus highlights concerns among corporate leaders regarding potential economic and policy impacts tied to the closely contested race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
“A sense of caution is definitely out there,” said Richard Tobin, CEO of Dover, on an October earnings call, citing election uncertainty among other factors. Similarly, companies like Tractor Supply and Southwest Airlines noted how election dynamics are influencing consumer behaviors and creating some temporary shifts in demand. Royal Caribbean CEO Michael Bayley remarked on the potential for short-term volatility, though historical data suggests no lasting impact on bookings from presidential elections.
Many executives have avoided naming Harris or Trump directly, instead discussing the broader implications of the political climate. Key economic policies, including potential shifts in tariffs and interest rates, are also on corporate radar. Stanley Black & Decker’s CEO, Donald Allan, cited the election and Federal Reserve policy as reasons for expected “choppy markets” through early 2025. Allan specifically noted that Trump’s proposed 20% tax on imports, with a 60% tax on goods from China, could significantly impact manufacturing.
In real estate, D.R. Horton CEO Paul Romanowski acknowledged that election-related stress and the prospect of lower 2025 mortgage rates are causing some buyers to “stay on the sidelines.” The homebuilder has responded by offering mortgage buydowns and constructing smaller homes to meet shifting demand. COO Michael Murray added, “I think everybody would be happy the election is over,” suggesting that market sentiment might stabilize post-election.
Other companies expressed minimal direct impact from the election. American Express CEO Stephen Squeri said, “This company has been around for lots of different elections,” emphasizing the company’s resilience amid political shifts. In contrast, sectors sensitive to regulatory changes, such as water infrastructure and waste disposal, voiced more concern, with Xylem and Republic Services both noting temporary “pauses” on projects.
With Election Day nearing, corporate leaders continue to monitor potential shifts in fiscal and economic policies, aiming to mitigate risks and maintain consumer confidence amidst the uncertainty.
