As the U.S. heads to the polls, the 2024 presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains one of the tightest in history. While key swing states traditionally play a major role, this time it’s eight critical counties within those states that could ultimately tip the scales. Here’s a look at the counties to watch and why they may be instrumental on Election Day.
1. Cobb County, Georgia: Once a Republican stronghold, Cobb County has shifted significantly, driven by changing demographics and increasing diversity. Now a majority-minority county, its residents are primarily college-educated and include a mix of affluent suburban voters. For Harris to secure Georgia, she needs to maximize her advantage here. Any dip in support could give Trump the edge in Georgia’s suburban vote.
2. Waukesha County, Wisconsin: Known for its traditionally Republican leanings, Waukesha is now seeing a shift. Many affluent, college-educated voters who previously voted Republican have become swing voters, especially regarding social issues like abortion rights. For Harris, cutting into Trump’s support in Waukesha could be key in securing Wisconsin, as Biden did in 2020.
3. Washoe County, Nevada: Encompassing Reno and Sparks, Washoe County has swung between parties over recent years. The area has grown in both population and economic activity, drawing more college-educated voters and tech industry professionals. With Trump gaining traction among Hispanic voters in Nevada, Harris will need strong support in Washoe to counter Trump’s rural base.
4. Wayne County, Michigan: Home to Detroit, Wayne County could indicate how Harris fares among two key demographics — Black Americans and Arab Americans. Trump has made some gains here, targeting younger, working-class voters. For Harris to succeed in Michigan, she must maintain solid support in Wayne County, particularly among Black and Arab American voters who were strong Biden supporters in 2020.
5. Douglas County, Nebraska: Despite Nebraska’s Republican lean, Douglas County — largely Omaha — has emerged as a battleground. The mix of suburban and urban voters, with a significant Black population, has made the area competitive. Winning here could give Harris a crucial electoral vote, potentially decisive in a close race.
6. Erie County, Pennsylvania: A bellwether county with a blend of urban and rural areas, Erie County has matched Pennsylvania’s overall vote in every presidential election since 1992. Harris holds a narrow lead here, but the GOP has increased voter registration efforts. Winning Erie could signal broader success across Pennsylvania, likely the election’s tipping-point state.
7. Maricopa County, Arizona: The most populous county in Arizona, Maricopa has been trending purple in recent years. Border issues and changing demographics, including a large Latino population, make this county crucial. Harris needs strong support in Maricopa to win Arizona, while Trump is aiming to pull the county back into the Republican column.
8. Cabarrus County, North Carolina: Northeast of Charlotte, Cabarrus has grown more diverse, with a rising nonwhite population and an influx of young, metropolitan voters. Harris may not need to win Cabarrus outright, but further narrowing Trump’s margin here could be essential for winning North Carolina, a tight race.
With polls showing a razor-thin margin between the candidates, the outcomes in these counties could be pivotal. Keep an eye on these areas as early results begin to come in on election night; they may provide the first clues of who will occupy the White House in 2024.
