Exports from China and India Drive Trade Increase
Global trade trends turned positive in the first quarter of 2024, with the value of trade in goods increasing by around 1% quarter-over-quarter and services by about 1.5%, according to the latest Global Trade Update released by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The growth was primarily driven by increased exports from China (9%), India (7%), and the U.S. (3%).
Regional Performance and Future Outlook
While China and India led the growth, Europe’s exports showed no growth, and Africa’s exports decreased by 5%. The report expects this growth to add approximately $250 billion to trade in goods and $100 billion to services trade in the first half of 2024 compared to the second half of 2023.
The short-term trade outlook remains cautiously optimistic as global forecasts for GDP growth stay around 3% for 2024. If positive trends persist, global trade in 2024 could reach almost $32 trillion, though it is unlikely to surpass the record levels seen in 2022.
Developing vs. Developed Countries
Trade in developing countries and South-South trade increased by about 2% in both imports and exports during the first quarter of 2024. In contrast, developed countries experienced flat imports and a modest 1% rise in exports. Despite the rise in South-South trade, its value is still significantly below 2022 levels, with its four-quarter moving average remaining negative at -5%.
Sector-Specific Growth
The report highlights significant variation in trade growth across sectors. Green energy and artificial intelligence-related products experienced stronger increases, with the trade value of high-performance servers rising by 25% compared to the first quarter of 2023, and other computers and storage units seeing an 8% increase.
As global trade continues to evolve, the significant contributions from China and India underscore the dynamic nature of international commerce and the pivotal role these economies play in driving global trade growth.
