Authorities have recovered the second black box from Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243, which crashed in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, killing 38 of the 67 people onboard. Early indications suggest the passenger jet may have been downed by a Russian anti-aircraft system, according to a U.S. official. The crash has raised questions over a possible case of mistaken identity amid heightened tensions in the region.
Flight Path and Crash Details
The ill-fated flight was traveling from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny, Russia, but was rerouted to Aktau, Kazakhstan, due to heavy fog near its destination. Data from Flightradar24 showed that the plane deviated from its expected path and encountered GPS jamming near Grozny, a situation that can impair a plane’s navigation and communication systems.
According to Kazakh authorities, the plane reported control system failures before attempting two landing approaches at Aktau airport. The crew lost communication with dispatchers shortly before the crash, which occurred roughly three kilometers from the airport.
Survivors and Fatalities
At least 38 people, including two pilots and a flight attendant, were confirmed dead. The 29 survivors, among them two children, were pulled from the wreckage, with six patients currently receiving treatment in Aktau. Four of these survivors remain in critical condition.
Passengers included nationals from Azerbaijan (37), Russia (16), Kazakhstan (6), and Kyrgyzstan (3).
Conflicting Theories on the Cause
Initial reports from Azerbaijan Airlines and Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency attributed the crash to a bird strike. However, experts and officials have cast doubt on this explanation:
- Video evidence shows damage to the aircraft’s body resembling shrapnel or debris.
- Ukrainian officials and international analysts, including Osprey Flight Solutions, have suggested the plane was likely struck by a Russian air defense system.
The incident follows Ukrainian drone strikes in southern Russia, which have previously led to airport closures in the region. Analysts speculate that Russian air defenses may have been active, leading to an unintentional strike on the plane.
Investigations Underway
A joint investigation involving Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Russia is in progress. Brazilian authorities and representatives from Embraer, the plane’s manufacturer, are also en route to Kazakhstan.
Kazakh officials, including Transport Minister Marat Karabayev, have urged caution against speculation, stating that “the preliminary cause cannot be determined yet.”
The U.S. official who spoke to CNN did not confirm the type of Russian system that may have been involved. Russia’s advanced S-300 and S-400 missile systems, along with its Pantsir medium-range defense system, are under scrutiny.
Political Implications and Speculations
The crash has added tension to an already fraught geopolitical situation. Critics, including Ukraine’s Andriy Kovalenko, claim Russia’s failure to close airspace over Grozny contributed to the disaster.
While Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed speculation, intelligence experts like Justin Crump have pointed to a “negligent mistake” by Russian air defenses as the most plausible explanation.
What’s Next?
Investigators will analyze the recovered black boxes for crucial data to determine the sequence of events leading to the crash. The findings will play a key role in addressing rising tensions and ensuring aviation safety in the region.
