The American multinational investment bank and financial services company Goldman Sachs has lowered the odds of the United States slipping into a recession in the next 12 months to 20% from 25%. This was based on the latest weekly jobless claims and retail sales reports.
Earlier this month, the fears of a US downturn were raised from 15% after the unemployment rate jumped to a three-year high in July.
According to Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist said that this probability of decreasing from 25% to 20%, is mainly based on the data for July and early August which shows no sign of recession.
Thursday’s jobless claims report showed number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to a one-month low in the previous week, on the other hand separate data revealed the retail sales increased by the most in 1-1/2 years in July.
On a positive note Hatzius said he would cut back the U.S. recession probability to 15% if the August jobs reports were good.
