Bitcoin options traders are ramping up bets that the cryptocurrency will hit an all-time high of $80,000 by the end of November, regardless of the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
The implied volatility for Bitcoin options expiring around the Nov. 5 election is notably high, with a strong preference for call options—financial contracts that give the buyer the right to purchase Bitcoin at a predetermined price. These calls are positioned for significant upward movement in Bitcoin’s price.
Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump is seen as a crypto advocate, so much so that Bitcoin is being viewed as a “Trump trade.” On the other hand, Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris has expressed support for a regulatory framework that would benefit the industry, contrasting with the Biden administration’s tougher stance on cryptocurrency. Additionally, non-political factors, such as potential further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, are also boosting optimism among traders.
Bitcoin Nearing Key Resistance Levels
Bitcoin previously reached an all-time high of $73,798 in March, amid excitement around new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) dedicated to the cryptocurrency in the U.S. Since then, the bullish momentum has cooled somewhat, but Bitcoin recently approached the $70,000 mark earlier this week before retreating. As of 6:03 a.m. in London on Wednesday, Bitcoin was trading at $67,100, marking a roughly 60% gain this year.
The put-to-call ratio is trending lower, signaling more demand for call options than puts, according to data from crypto options exchange Deribit. This suggests that traders are increasingly bullish on Bitcoin’s price.
Key Strike Prices and Expiration Dates
Open interest in Bitcoin call options expiring on Nov. 29 is heavily concentrated at the $80,000 strike price, with the $70,000 level following as the second most popular target. Similarly, for options expiring on Dec. 27, the strike prices cluster around $100,000 and $80,000. For calls expiring on Nov. 8, the $75,000 level remains the top strike price, according to Deribit’s data.
Call Options Commanding Premiums
Call options are commanding higher premiums relative to put options, based on the skew term structure. This pricing dynamic indicates that traders expect Bitcoin’s price to rise, with calls being favored across nearly all expiration periods beyond the one-day contracts, according to Jake Ostrovskis, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute.
Despite the elevated options activity, volatility around the U.S. election remains muted compared to other major events such as the launch of Bitcoin ETFs or Bitcoin’s halving events. However, analysts suggest that this could change as the election date approaches.
