2024 was supposed to be a comeback year for Boeing Co., but it has instead marked the company’s steepest stock decline since 2008. With shares down 35%, Boeing ranks among the 20 worst performers in the S&P 500 Index. Though the stock has shown signs of stabilizing, investor confidence remains shaky amid a series of crises and uncertainties tied to U.S. trade policy under President-elect Donald Trump.
Wall Street’s expectations for 2025 remain tempered, with analysts predicting only a modest 7% recovery from Boeing’s current share price of $169.65.
From Recovery to Crisis
Boeing began 2024 on a high note, appearing to recover from challenges such as two fatal crashes in 2018 and 2019, the pandemic’s impact on air travel, and strained relations with China. Surging jet orders and improved stock performance fueled optimism, with no major sell ratings among analysts.
However, a series of setbacks quickly derailed this optimism:
- January Incident: A mid-air failure involving a Boeing aircraft door during an Alaska Air flight sparked public outcry and scrutiny of corporate practices.
- Leadership Overhaul: The crisis led to a CEO exit and a shake-up in management.
- Labor Struggles: A debilitating strike disrupted operations, further straining production.
- Financial Pressure: Boeing reported significant cash burn and slashed profit forecasts, with analysts now projecting a loss of $15.89 per share for 2024—the worst since 2020.
Long-term earnings estimates for 2025 and beyond have also collapsed, with projections for 2026 and 2027 slashed by 50% or more.
Turbulence Ahead
Boeing’s global supply chain presents additional risks as Trump’s proposed tariffs loom large. The company, alongside other U.S. manufacturers like Caterpillar Inc. and Deere & Co., is vulnerable to potential trade disruptions, which could inflate costs and squeeze margins.
The production slowdown following the Alaska Air incident and the recent strike adds further pressure, reducing cash flow and allowing rival Airbus SE to solidify its dominance. Airbus now controls nearly 60% of the global commercial aircraft backlog, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Boeing’s lack of a new aircraft program in decades is another concern. CEO Kelly Ortberg has emphasized the need to develop a new plane, but investors will be closely watching for signs that Boeing can deliver high-quality aircraft at scale to meet growing global demand, particularly in emerging markets.
Silver Linings and Recovery Potential
Despite its struggles, Boeing retains a solid position as one of only two major aircraft manufacturers, alongside Airbus. The company’s backlog of orders, valued at over $500 billion, underscores strong demand for its planes. Additionally, a $21.1 billion share sale in 2024 has stabilized Boeing’s credit rating, providing some financial breathing room.
Last week, news of resumed assembly for the bestselling 737 Max provided a glimmer of hope, triggering Boeing’s best weekly stock performance since mid-2023.
JPMorgan analyst Seth Seifman sees long-term potential, writing, “The top priority is to execute on this demand by building flawless aircraft at a gradually increasing pace. This is not easy, and immediate results are unlikely, but progress in 2025 could deliver long-term value.
Challenges to Overcome
However, risks remain. Trade disruptions could inflate supply chain costs, with nearly half of Boeing’s suppliers located outside the U.S. This threatens both revenue and margins.
“Boeing’s position in the duopoly with Airbus ensures the company’s viability but doesn’t guarantee financial strength,” said Mark Malek, Chief Investment Officer at Siebert.
Investors are watching closely for signs of operational recovery, but with trade risks and production challenges still looming, Wall Street is cautious about Boeing’s ability to rebound in 2025.
