France plunged deeper into political uncertainty on Tuesday as Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government faced the threat of collapse. Opposition lawmakers, fueled by disagreements over an austerity budget, have called for a no-confidence vote against Barnier, just three months into his tenure.
The motion, spearheaded by the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) and supported by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN), comes after Barnier invoked executive powers to pass controversial social security reforms without parliamentary approval. The National Assembly is set to vote on the motion Wednesday, with results expected by 1900 GMT.
A Divided Opposition, A Fragile Government
Two no-confidence motions are on the table. The first, brought by the far-right RN, is unlikely to garner enough support. The second, introduced by the hard-left and backed by RN lawmakers, is expected to pass, which would topple Barnier’s minority government.
“Blocking this budget is, alas, the only way the constitution gives us to protect the French people from a dangerous, unfair, and punitive budget,” Le Pen said on X (formerly Twitter).
President Emmanuel Macron, currently visiting Saudi Arabia, has faced criticism for his handling of the crisis. His decision to call snap elections earlier this year, aimed at curbing the rise of the far-right, has instead led to prolonged political instability.
Economic and Political Stakes
Barnier’s government has been under immense pressure to slash €60 billion ($64 billion) in spending for 2025 to reduce the public-sector deficit to 5% of GDP from 6.1% this year. However, his austerity measures, including proposed cuts to prescription drug reimbursements, have been met with fierce resistance. Despite concessions, opposition lawmakers remain united in their rejection of his budget.
Finance Minister Antoine Armand warned of the potential fallout from ousting the government. “Lawmakers would be damaging the country by triggering further uncertainty. Who will bear the consequences? First and foremost, the French,” Armand told France 2 television.
Economists at ING have also raised concerns, stating that France’s polarized National Assembly makes finding a stable replacement for Barnier highly uncertain.
Public Discontent and Leadership Criticism
Public sentiment toward the government remains bleak. A recent poll revealed that 52% of French citizens favor Macron’s resignation, citing concerns over purchasing power and dissatisfaction with leadership.
“I’m very worried and very upset with the forces on the left and the far right,” said Bertrand Chenu, a retiree in Paris. Another Parisian, Janine Revel, dismissed the political class entirely, saying, “All the party leaders are useless. They only think of themselves.”
If the government falls, it would mark the first successful no-confidence vote since 1962, when Georges Pompidou’s administration was defeated during Charles de Gaulle’s presidency. The fall of Barnier’s government would also set a record for the shortest-lived administration in France’s Fifth Republic, which began in 1958.
Le Pen’s Political Calculations
Some analysts suggest that Marine Le Pen is leveraging the crisis to force President Macron out before his term ends. Le Pen, currently embroiled in an embezzlement trial that could block her from running in the 2027 presidential election, might see an opportunity to secure power early. If Macron steps down, a presidential election would need to be held within a month, potentially before her trial’s conclusion.
“She could hope, if she won, to be in the Elysee Palace by early February,” said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group.
As France braces for Wednesday’s vote, the outcome could usher in a period of significant political and financial upheaval, further destabilizing one of the European Union’s key member states.
