Major global currencies remained stable but cautious on Friday as traders awaited the highly anticipated U.S. non-farm payrolls report for November while navigating a politically tumultuous week marked by leadership shifts in France and instability in South Korea.
Focus on U.S. Labor Market and Fed Rate Outlook
Investors are eyeing the U.S. jobs data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory. Analysts expect a gain of 200,000 jobs in November, a recovery from October’s hurricane- and strike-affected 12,000-job increase. The unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly to 4.2%.
Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index, noted, “If we see an on-target non-farm payroll report, then that will likely cement expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve.” Markets currently price in a 72% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the December 17-18 meeting, up from 66.5% a week ago.
Dollar Index Shows Resilience Amid Global Uncertainty
The U.S. dollar index rose marginally by 0.05% to 105.77, recovering from a three-week low seen in the previous session. Against South Korea’s won, the dollar spiked 0.55% to 1420.4 following reports of potential martial law, adding pressure to Korean markets despite government promises of liquidity support.
Elsewhere, China’s yuan remained stable, but concerns over U.S. tariffs and domestic economic strains saw the offshore yuan weaken to 7.2676, marking its 10th consecutive weekly loss.
Euro Steady Despite French Political Drama
The euro traded slightly down at $1.0585 after a volatile week dominated by the resignation of French Prime Minister Michel Barnier. French President Emmanuel Macron has pledged to appoint a new prime minister soon, but the political uncertainty hasn’t derailed the euro, which is on track for a second consecutive weekly gain against the dollar.
Cryptocurrencies and Asian Markets in Focus
Bitcoin dipped 0.62% to $98,400, retreating from its record-breaking peak of $103,649 reached on Thursday. Meanwhile, Japan’s yen fell 0.37% to 150.60 against the dollar as traders speculated on the possibility of a December rate hike in Japan.
The Australian dollar slid 0.51% to $0.64185, while New Zealand’s kiwi declined 0.66% to $0.5846.
Looking Ahead
Market focus will shift to next week’s U.S. inflation data and the European Central Bank’s policy meeting on December 12, where a 25-basis-point rate cut is widely expected. Traders remain watchful of political developments in South Korea, France, and the broader geopolitical landscape as they assess risks heading into the end of the year.
