Gold hit another record as traders placed stronger bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year and weighed an uncertain outlook for US politics.
Bullion advanced in Asia hours to touch an all-time high of $2,475.81 an ounce on Tuesday, following a 1.9% jump in the previous session. Gold has rallied this month as traders pile into bets for earlier, deeper rate cuts from the Fed amid increasing signs that inflation is cooling toward the central bank’s target. Lower borrowing costs tend to benefit the metal as it yields no interest.
Gold has soared nearly 20% this year, supported by large purchases from central banks, strong consumer appetite in China, and demand for haven assets amid geopolitical tensions.
“Positive comments from the Fed’s Jerome Powell has helped stoke demand for gold this week. Lower yields helped propel gold sharply yesterday and through a chart resistance around $2,450/oz despite a broadly firm dollar. The allure of non-yielding bullion tends to be higher when interest rates are reduced, and markets are pricing a rate cut of at least 25 basis points by the Fed at its September meeting, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, with another cut expected by January 2025,” said Marc Pussard, Head of Risk, APM Capital.
Momentum-focused players are starting to re-emerge as a key driver of gold amid a more bullish environment. After stronger-than-expected US retail sales triggered a brief selloff on Tuesday, traders added to long positions in the precious metal, which helped to drive a rebound and attract even more flows, according to Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd.
“The fundamentals have clearly shifted to offer investors increased reasons to re-weight gold holdings in the portfolio, and this has led to price-sensitive funds chasing the upside,” Weston wrote in a Wednesday note. “With broad-based positioning and sentiment not near extremes, $2,500 could well be tested soon enough.”
However, there are signs that the rally is overextended at these levels. Gold’s 14-day relative-strength index was hovering near 70, a threshold that some investors consider as overbought.
“Gold prices soared by more than 1.93% on Tuesday, fueled by intensifying expectations for a US interest rate cut in September. This sentiment gained momentum following the release of the latest US inflation data, which came in weaker than anticipated,” Mohamed Hashad, Chief Market Strategist, at Noor Capital.
Elsewhere, markets continued to assess the financial and political implications of the weekend assassination attempt on Donald Trump as his bid for the presidency gains momentum. A Trump return to the White House could reinforce gold’s safe-haven status if global trade tensions escalate in response to proposed higher tariffs. Planned tax cuts could also risk a blowout in the US government deficit.
Image | Gene J. Puskar | AP
“The attempted assassination of former US President and Republican candidate Donald Trump, although unsuccessful, also played a role. The incident sparked speculation that it could bolster Trump’s popularity and increase his chances of winning the November election,” added Hashad.
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Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,472.29 as of 9:11 a.m. in Singapore, paring an earlier advance of 0.3%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed, as were 10-year Treasury yields. Silver gained, while platinum and palladium were flat.
