In a surprising turn just days before Election Day, a new poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump among likely voters in Iowa, with Harris capturing 47% to Trump’s 44%. The poll, conducted by the highly regarded Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, reflects a seven-point swing toward Harris since September and puts her lead within the poll’s 3.4-point margin of error.
The unexpected shift has caught political analysts off guard, as Iowa has traditionally leaned Republican, with Trump winning the state by eight points in 2020 and nine points in 2016. Neither Harris nor Trump had actively campaigned in Iowa since the primaries ended, making the poll’s results all the more surprising.
“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
The poll was conducted among 808 likely Iowa voters between Monday and Thursday. Harris’ lead in the survey has been largely attributed to strong support among female voters, especially older and politically independent women, according to Selzer. “Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” she added.
Third-Party Influence
The poll also shows 3% of respondents backing independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who previously endorsed Trump after ending his own campaign. Despite his endorsement, Kennedy remains on Iowa’s ballot, adding another dimension to the tight race.
In September, Trump led Harris by four points in the same Des Moines Register poll. The swing in voter sentiment is notable, especially considering Trump’s significant advantage over President Joe Biden in June, when he led by 18 points.
Trump Campaign Pushes Back
In response, the Trump campaign issued a memo calling the Des Moines Register poll an “outlier.” The memo referenced a separate poll by Emerson College, also released Saturday, which showed Trump leading Harris by a comfortable margin of 53% to 43%. “The Des Moines Register is a clear outlier poll,” the Trump campaign memo stated. “Emerson College, released today, far more closely reflects the state of the actual Iowa electorate and does so with far more transparency in their methodology.”
As Election Day approaches, the Iowa poll has injected new uncertainty into a state that was previously considered a Republican stronghold, highlighting potential shifts in voter dynamics and setting the stage for an unpredictable conclusion to the race.
