After three days of intense negotiations, the Trump administration, Ukraine, and Russia have agreed to a limited ceasefire, though key details, including what is covered and when it will take effect, remain contested by the warring sides. The initial agreements point to a long and contentious road ahead for a complete truce.
The negotiations primarily focused on easing Black Sea shipping and halting long-range strikes on energy infrastructure—issues that both sides have previously negotiated over. Despite the agreement, much remains unknown about the ceasefire’s full implementation, and tensions are already emerging.
Limited Ceasefire Faces Rocky Start
The ceasefire deal began with conflicting statements from both sides immediately after Tuesday’s talks. Russia and Ukraine disputed the start time for halting strikes on energy sites and accused each other of violating the ceasefire.
Russia conditioned its involvement in opening Black Sea shipping on the U.S. lifting sanctions, which Ukraine swiftly rejected. Russian officials expressed optimism over the talks, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called it a good start, although some Ukrainian lawmakers voiced concerns.
“Something tells me this is more advantageous for the enemy,” said Ukrainian lawmaker Yaroslav Zheleznyak, speaking to the Interfax Ukraine news agency.
Stopping Fighting Around Black Sea Shipping Routes
The U.S. announced that it had brokered a tentative agreement with Ukraine and Russia to halt fighting and ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea. Details of the deal, including its implementation and monitoring process, were not fully disclosed. The announcement marks another attempt to ensure secure Black Sea shipping after Russia halted a 2022 agreement brokered by the U.N. and Turkey in July 2023.
Russia stipulated that the agreement would only proceed after sanctions on the Russian Agricultural Bank and other financial institutions involved in food and fertilizer trade were lifted, and access to the SWIFT international payment system was ensured.
Zelenskyy rejected this Russian position, calling it false, even as the U.S. confirmed that it would assist in restoring Russia’s access to global agricultural and fertilizer exports.
Ukraine Questions Benefits of Black Sea Deal
Despite the potential benefits for Russia, Ukrainian officials expressed skepticism about how the deal would benefit Ukraine. The key concern was whether it would halt attacks on Ukrainian ports, an area of significant vulnerability.
“Personally, I don’t think this will significantly boost our export capacity. Frankly speaking, thanks to Ukrainian naval drones, we have considerably expanded our capabilities in the Black Sea,” said Zheleznyak.
Following Russia’s exit from the original Black Sea shipping agreement in 2023, Ukraine took matters into its own hands by establishing an alternative trade route guided by the Ukrainian Navy. This new route, which runs near Bulgaria and Romania’s coastlines, has allowed Ukraine to bypass Russian control. Ukrainian forces also launched sea drone attacks to push back Russia’s naval presence.
“Unfortunately,” Zheleznyak noted, “the new deal worsens our position in terms of influence in the Black Sea.”
Trading Blame Over Halted Energy Strikes
The ceasefire also included a halt to long-range strikes on energy infrastructure, but immediate disputes arose over when the halt would begin. Moscow claimed the ceasefire began on March 18 and accused Kyiv of violating the terms by striking energy sites inside Russia. However, Ukraine’s General Staff denied the allegations on Wednesday.
The Kremlin later published a list of facilities covered by the limited ceasefire, which includes refineries, oil and gas pipelines, oil storage facilities, pump stations, power-generating infrastructure, and nuclear and hydropower plants.
As both sides continue to clash over the details of the ceasefire, the long path toward a comprehensive truce remains fraught with uncertainty.
