As the U.S. presidential election unfolds, global eyes are focused on the outcome, but for some nations, the stakes are especially high. The results could mean the difference between stability or volatility, prosperity or economic decline, and, in some cases, the future of territorial integrity. Among the most affected countries are China, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, and Iran, all of whom stand to gain or lose significantly depending on who enters the White House, whether it be Republican former President Donald Trump or Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
China
As the United States’ largest economic rival, China’s future relations with the U.S. hang in the balance. During his previous term, Trump initiated a trade war by imposing tariffs on Chinese imports, a strategy he could revive if re-elected. Trump has suggested raising tariffs on Chinese goods by up to 100%, which economists warn could cost American households significantly. Harris has criticized Trump’s proposals but is unlikely to reverse all the trade tariffs imposed during Biden’s presidency, such as those on Chinese electric vehicles and solar panels. China’s economic slowdown and a possible U.S. election result will influence the size of the stimulus package it needs to boost its economy.
Russia and Ukraine
Ukraine, locked in an ongoing war with Russia, is particularly vulnerable to the U.S. election outcome. Trump’s foreign policy has leaned toward a less supportive stance for Ukraine, with promises to pressure the country into a negotiated settlement with Russia, potentially sacrificing significant territory. If Trump is re-elected, Ukraine could face the loss of more territory due to reduced U.S. support. Harris, by contrast, has pledged continued military aid to Ukraine, but securing additional funding from Congress may be challenging, depending on the election’s congressional results. For Ukraine, the election results could determine its very survival.
Israel and Iran
Israel’s security is another key issue in the U.S. presidential election. Both Trump and Harris have pledged continued U.S. support for Israel, particularly in its conflict with Iranian proxies in Gaza and Lebanon. Trump, however, is seen as a staunch supporter of Israel, having previously recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and the Golan Heights as Israeli territory. His policies earned him significant popularity in Israel, with polls showing that many Israelis believe Trump would be better for their interests. Harris, on the other hand, has been criticized for her handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but maintains that she will always stand by Israel’s right to defend itself. For Iran, the election results could lead to different outcomes: a second Trump term may bring harsher policies, including military action and more sanctions, while Harris is expected to continue Biden’s approach, emphasizing diplomacy and de-escalation.
As the U.S. election unfolds, the global landscape, especially for these nations, could shift dramatically based on who assumes the presidency.
