As Election Day nears on November 5, 2024, Donald Trump’s company, Trump Technology and Media Group (DJT), has become a proxy for betting on the presidential race. If Trump wins, DJT is expected to grow into a central hub for the president’s activities via the Truth Social app. If he loses, Truth Social may be left behind as a niche platform, overshadowed by tech giants like Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok.
For months, DJT shares have reflected this high-stakes gamble. Investors are now using option contracts—bets on the future stock price—to speculate on the election’s outcome. Interestingly, the most active DJT options are not set to expire immediately after Election Day but rather on November 15, suggesting traders anticipate a delayed result.
“People are betting we won’t know the winner on Election Day,” said Eric Hale, CEO of Trader Oasis. This speculation stems from potential vote-counting delays in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, where razor-thin margins could result in recounts or legal challenges.
DJT’s stock has been highly volatile, with shares rising and falling in step with Trump’s electoral chances. The company’s stock reached a low of $12 in September but has surged more than 100% to $33.50 as Election Day approaches. Option traders are capitalizing on this volatility, drawn by the possibility of massive profits in the aftermath of a binary election result.
While the exact post-election outcome for DJT remains uncertain, the stock’s implied volatility—around 300%, compared to a typical 20%—signals intense market speculation. Some traders expect the stock could swing between $39 and $16 in the weeks following the election, depending on how the final vote tally shapes up.
