As Trump and Harris approach the final lap of the presidential race, Arab Americans are leaning towards a Republican win in 2024. A new poll indicates that the wars in the Middle East are costing Harris votes from crucial battleground states. In the poll released on Monday by Arab News/YouGov, Trump is ahead of Harris by 45% to 43% among the key demographic, with just two weeks remaining until voters select the next US president.
Other key insights from the poll suggest that voters trust Trump to “successfully resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict,” leading to a 39% score compared to 33% for Democrats. The poll remains divided on which candidate is best “in general” for the Middle East, with Trump and Harris securing a 38% score. When posed with key concerns that plague the Arab American community, 29% of respondents stated the Israel-Palestine war.
Despite Trump’s sustained pro-Israel stance, it has led to a six-point margin lead against Democrats, according to the polls.
Most results, based on a sample of 500 Arab Americans, fall within a margin of error of plus or minus 5.93%. This poll serves as a new warning to Democrats that President Joe Biden’s backing of Israel’s actions in Gaza may jeopardize his vice president’s chances in the upcoming November 5 election.
In a poll released by the Arab American Institute earlier this month, Trump and Harris were nearly tied at 42% and 41%, respectively. Harris’s support among Arab Americans in this poll was 18 points lower than Biden’s in 2020. Given the dense concentration of Arab Americans in Michigan, a crucial swing state in the November elections, a change in the Democrats’ narrative is imperative to mobilize support. Michigan is home to the largest population of Arab Americans in North America, boasting the Arab-dominated city of Dearborn.
In an attempt to appeal to the Arab sentiment in Michigan, Trump poked holes in Republican former Congresswoman Liz Cheney’s endorsement of Harris on Monday. “If Kamala gets four more years, the Middle East will spend the next four decades going up in flames, and your kids will be going off to war, maybe even a Third World War, something that will never happen with President Donald J. Trump in charge,” Trump wrote emphatically in a post on his Truth Social platform.
