On October 1, Iran reportedly launched its largest-ever attack on Israel, firing some 200 ballistic missiles. The attack was countered by Israel’s defence system with the help of the United States and its allies.
For weeks now, there has been speculation and concern if the Israel-Hezbollah conflict will spread into a wider war across the Middle East with the involvement of Iran. Iran says its attack was in retaliation to the killings of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. Iran’s military chief has warned of broader strikes if Israel responds. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that Iran has made a “big mistake” and “will pay”.
The Middle tensions have boiled over with the latest escalation. Was Iran’s attack expected?
“Yes, there had to be some response to the killing of the Hezbollah chief,” says Einar Tangen, Senior Fellow, Taihe Institute and Chairman of Asia Narratives.
“There’s also a general feeling that the U.S. and Iran are pulling the strings using proxies,” says Tangen, speaking to The Finance 360 from Beijing. “And their proxies are not appreciated by all the countries in the Middle East. So it’s a complex situation,” he adds.
The U.S. and Iran are pulling the strings using proxies, says Einar Tangen, an analyst from Beijing
The United States of America, under the Biden administration, has been a strong ally of Israel in its war against Hamas and its subsequent campaign in Gaza. Palestinian health authorities say Israel’s ground and air campaign in Gaza has killed more than 41,500 people, with the majority of identified victims being women and children.
Following the attack on Israel late on Tuesday, President Joe Biden said the U.S. “actively” supported Israel’s defence at his direction. He said he had spent the morning in the Situation Room – the White House hub for handling important national security issues.
“The fact that the U.S. continues to support Israel is criminal. This idea that ‘I have a right to defend myself’ does not mean that ‘I have the right to commit war crimes’,” says Tangen.
For months, analysts and foreign policy experts have opined that Israel’s war on Gaza is a way for Israel’s embattled Prime Minister Netanyahu to maintain his grip on power amid massive discontent in the country.
“Netanyahu has no reason to end the war. If he does, he will probably end up in prison,” says Tangen.
So how will this conflict shape up going forward?
“We are now entering a difficult time in this conflict where the U.S. is not providing any leadership in cooling tensions,” says Tangen. “If the U.S. and Israel continue to try and engage Iran, there will be a war,” he adds.
The bigger fear, he says, is if either party hints at using nuclear weapons.
Israel’s war cabinet has not decided exactly how it will respond to Iran’s attack, reports Axios, but Naftali Bennett, a former Israeli prime minister, has urged Israel to “destroy [Iran’s] nuclear project, destroy their major energy facilities and critically hit this terrorist regime.”
It is important to note that any Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites can potentially be dangerous. This is because Iran’s nuclear capabilities are not fully known even though it denies it has any nuclear weapon.
“When it comes to Iran, the use of nukes is not unimaginable if threatened,” says Tangen.
